Hostoria Marrakech Short-Term Rental Barometer: methodology

Source: monthly statistics from Morocco's airport authority (ONDA), official files archived at each release. We use total traffic, international traffic and the top five routes of Marrakech-Menara airport.

ONDA traffic counts arrivals and departures: a passenger on a return trip is counted twice.

For each reference year, each month's traffic is divided by the year's monthly average, which removes year-on-year growth. A month's coefficient is the average of these ratios over the available years: 2024, 2025 and 2026 for January to July, 2024 and 2025 for August to December. The twelve coefficients are then scaled to average 1.00.

2022 and 2023 are excluded: Morocco closed its borders from 29 November 2021 to 7 February 2022, and the recovery that followed is not seasonality.

The month's traffic is compared with what its seasonal coefficient would predict, relative to the level of its year (sum of published traffic divided by the sum of their coefficients). Above 1.00, the month beat its season; below, it fell short. Until the year is complete, the index is provisional.

Travel receipts published by the Office des Changes, divided by air passengers arriving in Morocco, estimated from ONDA traffic. Residents and Moroccans living abroad are included, arrivals by road and sea are not. It is a national, approximate value: the Office does not publish receipts by city.

We record the number of entire homes Airbnb displays for six areas of Marrakech (Medina, Gueliz, Hivernage, Agdal, Palmeraie, South), by number of guests, for several check-in dates. Homes still free the following week, compared with the total stock measured two months ahead, give a forward-looking occupancy. First results will be published after the first complete survey.

Some data, such as overnight stays in classified hotels, is available for internal use only. We do not publish it, even when it would improve a calculation.